The contemporary international system is characterized by a growing number and increasing complexity of armed conflicts. According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), more than 55 active armed conflicts were recorded worldwide in 2024, the highest level since the end of the Cold War.

These conflicts have contributed to a record level of displacement, with more than 120 million forcibly displaced people globally, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

An analysis of the main conflict zones shows that contemporary global conflict dynamics are largely structured around three primary drivers:

  • geopolitical rivalries related to power and territory
  • identity-based divisions rooted in ethnicity or religion
  • internal political struggles for control of the state.

In practice, most modern conflicts combine elements of all three dynamics.

I- Geopolitical conflicts

Power rivalries, territorial disputes, and strategic balances Geopolitical conflicts primarily involve states competing over territory, strategic influence, or security considerations. These conflicts often have significant repercussions for the broader international system.

  • The Russia–Ukraine war

The war between Russia and Ukraine represents the most significant interstate conflict in Europe today. The crisis began in 2014 with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of separatist conflict in the Donbas region. It escalated into a full-scale war with the Russian invasion on 24 February 2022.

Western estimates suggest more than 500,000 cumulative military and civilian casualties since the invasion began. Approximately 10 million people have been displaced, including nearly six million refugees across Europe.

The conflict extends far beyond a bilateral dispute. It forms part of a broader strategic confrontation between Russia and Western states, particularly through the involvement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which has significantly expanded military and financial support for Ukraine.

The war has also triggered a major restructuring of Europe’s energy system, notably through the sharp reduction of Russian gas imports.

  • Strategic rivalry over Taiwan

Tensions between China and Taiwan represent one of the most significant potential flashpoints of the twenty-first century. Taiwan has a population of around 23 million people and plays an outsized role in the global economy. The island produces more than 60% of the world’s advanced semiconductors, which are critical for modern industries.

The Taiwan Strait is also a key maritime corridor through which nearly 40% of global container trade passes. For Beijing, Taiwan remains a province that must ultimately be reunified with mainland China. Conversely, Taiwan’s authorities defend their political autonomy and maintain strategic support from the United States and several Western partners.

  • India–Pakistan rivalry over Kashmir

Since the partition of British India in 1947, India and Pakistan have contested sovereignty over the region of Kashmir. This mountainous territory is home to roughly 14 million inhabitants and remains one of the most heavily militarized areas in the world.

Both states possess approximately 160 nuclear warheads each, giving the rivalry global strategic significance. Although large-scale clashes have become less frequent, the Kashmir dispute continues to represent a persistent source of instability in South Asia.

II- Identity-based conflicts: Ethnic, religious, and national divisions

Many contemporary conflicts originate from long-standing divisions between communities, often intensified by political and economic tensions.

  • The Israeli–Palestinian conflict

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians remains one of the longest-running conflicts in modern history. It dates back to the establishment of the State of Israel in 1948 and reflects competing national claims over the same territory.

Today, approximately 9.8 million people live in Israel, while the Palestinian population exceeds 5.5 million people across the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Following the 7 October 2023 attack carried out by Hamas, the war in Gaza escalated dramatically and generated a major humanitarian crisis.

United Nations estimates indicate more than 35,000 Palestinian deaths and over 1.7 million internally displaced persons within a territory of roughly 2.2 million inhabitants. Beyond its territorial dimension, the conflict also carries a significant religious component related to the status of Jerusalem.

  • Ethnic conflicts in Myanmar

Since the 2021 military coup, Myanmar has been engulfed in a complex civil war involving the military government, pro-democracy forces, and numerous ethnic armed organizations. The country officially recognizes more than 135 ethnic groups, several of which maintain armed militias. The conflict has resulted in more than two million internally displaced persons and a severe deterioration of humanitarian conditions.

  • Ethnic tensions in Ethiopia

Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country with over 120 million inhabitants, is governed through a federal system based on ethnic regions.

The war in Tigray between 2020 and 2022 was one of the deadliest conflicts of the twenty-first century. Estimates suggest between 300,000 and 600,000 deaths, including those resulting from combat, famine, and humanitarian consequences. Although a peace agreement was signed in 2022, tensions between regional authorities remain high.

III- Internal political conflicts: Struggles for power and institutional fragility

In many fragile states, conflicts emerge from governance crises, coups, or violent competition for control of state institutions.

  • The Sudanese civil war

Since April 2023, Sudan has been engulfed in a war between the national army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan has a population of approximately 48 million people, and the conflict has already produced more than eight million displaced persons, creating one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises.

The struggle for power is also closely tied to the control of strategic gold resources, particularly in the Darfur region.

  • The Yemeni civil war

The conflict in Yemen has pitted the internationally recognized government against the Houthis since 2015. The war has caused more than 370,000 deaths according to United Nations estimates and triggered one of the most severe humanitarian crises in the world.

More than 20 million people require humanitarian assistance in a country of roughly 34 million inhabitants. The conflict is also influenced by the regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

  • Violence in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo remains one of the most persistent conflict zones in Africa. The Great Lakes region hosts numerous armed groups, including the M23 movement.

The country possesses vast strategic resources, including cobalt, coltan, and copper, which are essential for global technology industries and battery production.

The Democratic Republic of Congo currently counts more than six million internally displaced persons, one of the highest figures worldwide.

Conclusion: an increasingly systemic global conflict landscape

The analysis of contemporary conflicts highlights three major structural trends.

First, the return of great-power rivalries is reintroducing a strong geopolitical dimension to international conflicts, as illustrated by the war in Ukraine and tensions surrounding Taiwan.

Second, the institutional fragility of many states continues to fuel prolonged internal conflicts, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.

Third, ethnic and religious identities are frequently mobilized within conflicts where political and territorial issues remain central.

Taken together, these dynamics outline three major arcs of global instability: Eastern Europe, the broader Middle East; the African arc extending from the Sahel to the Great Lakes region.

In a rapidly evolving international system marked by shifting balances of power, these regions are likely to remain key geopolitical fault lines shaping global stability in the coming decades.